Guarded optimism at Geneva 3 talks

Crescent International

Muharram 16, 1435 2013-11-20

Daily News Analysis

by Crescent International

The third round of talks between Iran and the sextet started in Geneva today amid guarded optimism that there may be an interim deal at last. It is still too early to tell but all signs point to progress. The next two days will show what can be expected.

Geneva, Crescent-online
November 20, 2013, 12:49 DST

As Iran’s Foreign Minister Dr Mohammad Javad Zarif huddled with the European Union Foreign Policy Chief, Catherine Ashton for detailed discussions, there was guarded optimism about the outcome of the Geneva 3 talks underway today.

The Rahbar, Imam Seyyed Ali Khamenei, addressing the Basij cautioned Iran’s nuclear negotiators: “We do not intervene in the details of these talks. There are certain red lines and limits. These have to be observed. They are instructed to abide by those limits.”

Leading to the talks, however, a number of positive statements were made by all parties, discounting the perennial whining of the Zionists that a deal was near. President Barack Obama urged Congress not to impose additional sanctions on Iran otherwise the talks would be derailed. Accordingly, the US Senate postponed the vote although the new sanctions bill had already passed the Republican dominated House of Representatives.

It is important to understand what is at play. An interim deal that will last for six months is being negotiated. In return for Iran suspending uranium enrichment to 20 percent and stopping construction work on the Arak heavy water reactor that uses plutonium, it would get some sanctions relief. How much relief is the subject of speculation but it would become apparent if the interim deal is signed.

This was almost agreed in the last round of Geneva talks (November 7-9) before France threw its spanner into it because of Zionist pressure. This time around, Obama has already spoken to French President Francois Hollande and secured his tacit understanding of the deal.

In international parlays, often much of the ground work is done behind the scenes. When high level officials meet, it is to iron out the last bits and pieces. Geneva 3 is no different. Reports from various sources indicate that there is agreement on 90 percent of the issues already. This is perhaps what scares the Zionists.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergio Lavrov also sounded an optimistic note yesterday in interview with a Russian newspaper saying that the deal was close. He also dismissed talk that Iran had come to Geneva because of the effect of sanctions. He said this should be left for historians to judge while diplomats should concentrate on working out a negotiated solution.

The deal was derailed in the last round of Geneva talks because of last minute obstructions by France and US Secretary of State John Kerry going wobbly. French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius (for the record his parents are Zionist Jews) raised objections about the heavy water reactor at Arak. On November 14, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) issued its report putting to rest these concerns. The IAEA said no new construction had taken place at Arak since August and that major equipment had not been installed. Scheduled for completion in 2014, according to current estimates, this may not materialize until 2015.

Two regimes are particularly jittery about any deal between Iran and the P5+1 group of countries: Zionist Israel and Wahhabi Saudi Arabia. Both are dependent on the US: the first, as a parasite and the second as a scary group of pleasure-loving princes who see events overtaking them at breakneck speed.

Will they be able to derail progress in the talks? The Saudi-zionist attack on Iran’s embassy in Beirut yesterday must be viewed as part of their attempt to do so but it appears there is determination on both sides (Iran and P5+1) to move ahead.

In the nuclear chess game, what is important is to see whether this would end up as a “win-win” situation that Iran’s Foreign Minister Zarif has so often talked about. On the eve of his departure to Geneva, he released a video in which he challenged his Western counterparts to show courage and resolve in ending this artificial crisis.

If there is genuine progress in Geneva in the next two days, this could lead to progress in other areas as well, especially in Syria.

Nothing, however, should be taken for granted until the deal is signed and even then there is no guarantee that Western governments would honour it. This unfortunately is their habit. Iran will have to be extra careful and make sure that there is reciprocity at each step.

It would not be prudent to believe in Western words or taken in by their plastic smiles.

END