Let us assume that Joe Biden becomes US president after the November elections.
Let us further assume that no civil war erupts over rigging and other controversies.
Even if everything goes smoothly—a big if—Washington’s attempt to rejoin the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), will not be smooth sailing.
There is no reason why Islamic Iran should make it easy for the US. Tehran might even reject America’s bid to rejoin.
Analyzing the 2015 JCPOA (aka the Iran nuclear deal), Crescent International wrote in 2016 that anyone with even limited understanding of global politics knows that NATO’s goal remains unchanged.
It wants to overthrow the Islamic governing system in Iran.
A year later when examining Iran’s economic resistance to the US we pointed out that Washington imposed new visa regulations in January 2016 for EU citizens.
Any EU citizen wishing to visit the US who had also been to Iran in the past five years needed to get a visa prior to arrival in America.
This restriction was not in place before the JCPOA was signed.
It was clearly designed to discourage Western tourists from visiting Iran as well as businessmen from participating in Iran’s economic projects.
Thus, Biden’s claim that if elected his regime would rejoin the JCPOA was followed, not surprisingly, by scandalous allegations against Iran.
He asserted that he would be “using hard-nosed diplomacy and support from our allies to strengthen and extend it [JCPOA], while more effectively pushing back against Iran’s other destabilizing activities.”
This once again highlights that JCPOA was merely a means to pressure Iran.
Nevertheless, Biden’s plan and that of his team is based on the assumption that Tehran needs the US to join the JCPOA.
Speaking to a forum organized by New York’s Council on Foreign Relations on September 21, Iran’s Foreign Minister Javad Zarif said that the US must compensate Iran for the hundreds of billions of dollars in economic losses it has suffered.
This, he asserted was the direct result of US not fulfilling its obligations under the JCPOA.
Further, Tehran will not negotiate any new deal to replace the JCPOA, Iran’s top diplomat stated firmly.
Zarif’s statement derives from the reality which even Biden indirectly acknowledges.
Writing for CNN on September 13, Biden admitted that “since Trump took office, Iran or its proxies have killed two American service members and a US contractor, severely injured more than 100 US troops, damaged Saudi oil facilities and disabled commercial ships transiting the Gulf.”
This was Tehran’s response to US aggression under the so-called “maximum pressure” policy, which has completely failed.
Thus, a new regional reality has emerged under which the US is a player but not the principal one.
The world moves on even without Washington’s participation as it has been for the past four years.
Trump’s maximum pressure policy has reinforced Iran’s position that it can increase influence without having to politically pacify the US through JCPOA-type deals.
Tehran’s economic, political and military policies prove this.
Why does this need to change now?
Since the Islamic Revolution in Iran, Tehran has outmaneuvered the US on virtually every front.
This is due to its determination to take steps outside of Western assumptions.
Iran could again institute policies not imagined by US policy-makers.
For instance, it may stipulate that the JCPOA could be kept on life support if the US is excluded. Washington no longer matters in global affairs.