Pasha Erdogan Sees Power Slipping From His Hands

Ahmet Mehmet

Dhu al-Qa'dah 03, 1446 2025-05-01

News & Analysis

by Ahmet Mehmet (News & Analysis, Crescent International Vol. 55, No. 3, Dhu al-Qa'dah, 1446)

In power for 23 years, Recep Tayip Erdogan has come to believe that he is indispensable for Turkey and would like to stay in power for another 23 years, if the Angel of death does not come calling sooner. It also proves the dictum that power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely. And like drugs, power is also addictive.

Erdogan sees Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu as his main rival in the presidential elections, hence he has gone after him. Nominated by the Republican People’s Party (CHP) as its presidential candidate for the 2028 elections, İmamoğlu has garnered much support among Turkish people including among Erdogan’s traditional supporters.

According to the constitution, Erdogan is ineligible to run in 2028. Many observers, however, believe that he may either hold elections before that date or amend the constitution in order to run again.

There is a precedent for this scenario. After serving as prime minister for two terms (starting in 2002) and being ineligible to run again, Erdogan changed the constitution by giving more powers to the president and then ran for the post. He dismissed his old friend Abdullah Gul who was president at the time and consigned him to political oblivion.

Erdogan has been president ever since. He also built himself a billion dollar palace whose grandeur would make the old Sultans go blue with envy.

İmamoğlu was arrested on March 19 on a slew of corruption charges as well as his support for “terrorist organizations” (read that as trying to make political alliances with Kurdish parties).

There is a familiar ring to the charges against İmamoğlu: accepting bribes, collaborating with “terrorist organizations,” establishing shell companies to bypass municipal regulations and unlawfully secure projects, and cooperating with Kurdish groups in municipal elections. After interrogation by the police and prosecutors, the terrorism allegations were dropped.

It is interesting to note that Erdogan’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) has also been holding discussions with Kurdish parties. That is described as showing statemanship. Yet İmamoğlu’s contacts with them amount to supporting terrorist organizations!

The Istanbul mayor is also alleged to have forged his academic credentials. His master’s degree was revoked by the university after 20 years. He has been elected Istanbul’s mayor three times but the university did not find anything wrong with his academic qualifications before. The sudden “discovery” of his credentials being suspect is certainly politically motivated.

Annulment of his academic degree effectively disqualifies İmamoğlu from running in the presidential elections. The university was pushed into action by Erdogan and his henchmen after İmamoğlu was chosen by the opposition CHP as its presidential candidate.

Turkiye’s oldest political party, the CHP was founded by Mustafa Kemal and pursues a clearly secular agenda. The ruling AKP is seen as Islamically-oriented although such designations have become less relevant. Both the CHP and the AKP have moved to the centre. The AKP today is more like the CHP at prayer.

Turkiye’s three major cities—Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir—are controlled by candidates belonging to the CHP. This is seen as a major challenge to Erdogan’s hold on power. Istanbul in particular is crucial. Erdogan himself rose to power by first becoming the mayor of Istanbul. He sees İmamoğlu’s candidacy as deeply worrying, hence the frantic efforts to bar him from running.

Reports say that other leading members of the CHP may also be arrested. Erdogan’s instincts as a street fighter are coming to the fore despite being in power for 23 years. It does not bode well for Turkiye’s future.

Regarding corruption, the AKP is not clean either, including members of Erdogan’s own family. On June 26, 2023, Reuters published a report implicating Erdoğan’s son Bilal in a corruption scandal. Far from investigating these allegations, 47 tweets, 45 news links, and one YouTube video which shared or re-published the story were blocked for access on grounds of violating personal rights. The Directorate of Communications also slammed the report as baseless, calling it disinformation. Bilal Erdoğan, through a lawyer, called the investigation “a web of lies.”

It is common practice in Turkey to block content about corruption or irregularities in due process. This is especially true of allegations against Erdoğan, his family, or AKP mayors and officials. By some estimates, close to half of the blocked news is directly related to corruption allegations against ruling party officials or members.

So, the manner in which the authorities have gone after İmamoğlu, arresting him, clearly indicates political motives. On April 14, an Istanbul court refused his plea for release.

Did it fear that he would flee the country? His appearance in court was on separate charges: threatening the state prosecutor!

Erdoğan and his henchmen clearly fear the huge crowds İmamoğlu was drawing to his rallies. These are not just secularists but also many people that had voted for Erdoğan in the past. Students have also rallied in support of İmamoğlu, staging rallies in many cities across the country.

Following İmamoğlu’s arrest, the Turkish lira plummeted to its lowest level in decades. The stock market also plunged. With inflation exceeding 90 percent in recent years, people’s woes have multiplied. Even his religious base that he had mesmerized with his soaring rhetoric no longer buys into this canard. People need bread not rhetoric to eat.

While Erdogan has controlled much of the media—nearly 80 percent of Turkish media is under state control—and the judiciary has been neutered, Erdogan thought he had an air tight control over the system. Politics, however, can spring unexpected surprises. His recent moves betray his nervousness that he can no longer conceal.

Turkiye is heading for turbulent times. No amount of sugar-coating this fact can alter the ground reality. Erdogan has a choice. He can either retire gracefully or continue to cling to power and be driven out of office by a tidal wave of public anger. Whatever little good he may have done will be swept away with him. The chances of his bowing out gracefully appear slim.