Putin relies on the Russian military for victory in Ukraine

Empowering Weak & Oppressed

Crescent International

Rajab 29, 1443 2022-03-02

Daily News Analysis

by Crescent International

The intensity of media war during Russian military operations in Ukraine is extremely high.

If the war drags on, the media front along with developments on the ground will make the war in Syria look benign.

The media war is so intense that even the BCC published a piece stating that “if you woke up this morning, looked at the news, and felt increasingly worried about the war in Ukraine, you are not alone. After a two-year pandemic, it’s a lot to absorb, and experts agree that feeling overwhelmed is normal.”

As the world hopefully learned from the Syrian war, there is a media reality and then there is reality on the ground.

According to the media angle of the Syrian war, the Syrian government was going to collapse by the end of 2011.

That did not happen, partly because western policy-makers and their media outlets were stuck in an echo chamber.

The echo chamber effect applies to the Russian government as well, whose media propaganda techniques are far less sophisticated than those of its NATO adversaries.

Russian propaganda is certainly behind in terms of quantity and quality.

However, it seems that the Russian government is not concerned about losing the information war, if they are able to militarily dominate the ground.

What ‘domination’ means to the Russian military and political establishment is quite different to what many in the media assume it to be.

Russian military tactics seem to be focused on destabilizing Ukraine as a state and keeping western Europe in a state of panic and instability.

It is similar to the US policy of strategic denial in the Muslim World.

As Washington could not dominate Syria, Yemen, and Lebanon, they destabilized them.

Their mindset is, if not us, then no one.

Russia applies this at the tactical level.

If it cannot capture Ukrainian towns, it blocks them from being able to be part of the wider Ukrainian resistance strategy.

It is unlikely that Russians want to occupy a country of 40 million, like what the Americans tried to do in Iraq or Afghanistan.

If Russians opt for Ukraine’s occupation, it will be impossible to accomplish, and failure is guaranteed.

Russian military tactics in Ukraine seem to be tied to political objectives which are not quite clear to outsiders.

Like their political thinking, the Russian leadership wants to keep its military strategy and tactics shrouded in unpredictability to keep others confused.

There are, however, certain important aspects which are being dwarfed during the vast number of reports constantly flooding the airwaves and the social media.

Our daily observation and analysis of the information points to the following conclusions at present.

  • Although degraded, the Ukrainian armed forces still retain their conventional capabilities and are trying to merge them with unconventional means of resistance. The success of this will determine how sustained their resistance can remain.
  • War is deception. Both sides exaggerate their successes and downplay their setbacks. Ukrainians are better at it since the entire western media and technological establishment are on their side.
  • Looking at Russia’s use of artillery and airstrikes in Ukraine and comparing them to what they used in Chechnya, or the Serbs in Bosnia, and the US in Iraq, not even half their intensity and capacity has been utilized.
  • Russian armed forces are facing a more determined resistance than they expected.
  • Confirmation by some western regimes that they will allow volunteers to join Ukrainian forces or look the other way, indicates that western military advisers and special forces are likely to join in “private” capacity.
  • Urban warfare has not started yet. Thus, unfortunately, the bloodier phase is still ahead, if Russia chooses not to end the war soon.
  • Prolonged war is still a disadvantage to Russia militarily.

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