In recent days there have been clear signs of regional reconfiguration beaming out of Abu Dhabi and Amman.
On October 3, Anwar Gargash, adviser to the UAE president stated that the Emirate is ready to reshape its relations with Turkey and Islamic Iran.
On the same day, several international media outlets reported that Second Lieutenant of the British army, Abdullah II bin al-Hussein, who rules Jordan, spoke on the phone with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
Some analysts explain the recent change of tone among Washington-backed kleptocracies as a green light from Washington.
While this may be partly true, it is an incomplete picture rooted in an outdated perspective of current affairs.
It does not register the fact that the global order is no longer West-centric.
The UAE and Jordan’s change of tone is a signal that NATO surrogates have realized that they can no longer rely on the old Western constructed political and military architecture of the region.
While Turkey and Iran will most likely reciprocate positively at the diplomatic level, reciprocation will most likely remain confined to diplomatic domain.
America’s regional surrogates gambled not just on a losing player, but on a losing game.
Both Tehran and Ankara realize that in the new emerging multipolar global order, Abu Dhabi and Amman need Turkey and Iran much more than the other way around.
Since the US launched its war of terror in 2001, Washington-backed autocracies in the region presented themselves as regimes capable of sheltering others from NATO’s wrath.
They also claimed to be gatekeepers for other West Asian state entry into the Western global order.
Today NATO is incapable of unleashing its military might against anyone without facing considerable pushback.
Syria is the most obvious example of this reality.
Western regimes did all they could to overthrow the Syrian government in order to roll back Iran’s regional influence, but failed completely.
NATO’s military and political capabilities have been significantly degraded and no one takes their power and influence as seriously as 20 years ago.
Taking into consideration the Western world’s serious economic and political malfunctions, there is no rush to be part of a Western club which offers little in exchange for surrendering one’s political sovereignty.
Regimes like those in the UAE and Jordan function on a formula not geared towards state interest or political principles.
Their primary aim is to sustain the ruling elites in power.
This makes both regimes a liability, particularly for Islamic Iran, whose aim is to reconfigure the region within Islam’s theory of international relations grounded in the Qur’anic moral framework.
In the coming months, we are likely to hear more sweet words and policy compromises from US-backed autocracies towards China, Russia, Iran, Turkey, and Syria.
These policy compromises and overtures towards non-Western powers will reduce regional tensions but they are unlikely to rescue regimes installed by the old global order.
The UAE, Jordan, and the Saudi regime are expired goods with little long-term use to the new emerging regional powers.