Will the Saudis relaunch their war on Yemen?

Empowering Weak & Oppressed

Crescent International

Jumada' al-Akhirah 09, 1444 2023-01-02

Daily News Analysis

by Crescent International

Based on recent statements of Ansar Allah officials in Yemen and Saudi actions, it appears that the Yemeni war front might reignite once again in the coming days.

On December 29, 2022, the Beirut based Al-Mayadeen reported that a member of the political bureau of Ansar Allah movement, Ali Al-Qahoum stated that unexpected surprises await the Saudi regime if its military operations against Yemen continue.

On the same day, Middle East Monitor quoted Abdullah Musraa, director of the hospital in Razih Al-Rifi, as saying that since the UN- backed ceasefire in April 2022, the Saudi regime that has the backing of NATO has killed or injured 900 Yemeni civilians.

A day later, spokesman for the Yemeni Petroleum Company, Issam Al-Mutawakel announced that the Saudi regime prevented four ships with fuel to reach Yemen’s Al-Hudaydah port.

The above news out of Yemen and the recent meeting between a Yemeni delegation and Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Oman, indicate that Yemen might once again grab international headlines.

When the Saudi-led war was launched on Yemen in March 2015, the Ansar Allah-led Yemeni government stated that they will turn the tables on their adversaries.

Many foreign analysts dismissed this as mere bravado.

The Saudis were not only massively armed but they also had the backing of many western and Arabian regimes.

What chance did the poorest country in the Middle East have against the richest monarchy?

Time proved that the Ansar Allah were neither bluffing nor indulging in empty rhetoric.

The Yemenis not only successfully defended themselves against the Saudi-western takeover of their country but they also took the war into Saudi territory.

If Riyadh relaunches its aggression against Yemen, the broader global geopolitical situation points to the fact that the Yemenis will likely double their retaliations inside Saudi Arabia.

Sanaa knows that the primary geostrategic mind behind Saudi aggression are western regimes providing Riyadh with political and military backing.

In the more than seven years since the war was launched, the global situation has changed radically, especially as a consequence of the war in Ukraine, oil has become an important factor in global affairs.

Yemenis will capitalize on this by destabilizing Saudi oil production capabilities.

This is likely to force Saudi Arabia’s western backers to pressure Riyadh to negotiate a peace deal with Yemen.

It can also not be discounted that Russia might provide assistance to Yemen if hostilities erupt again.

Limiting Saudi oil supplies to the global market will increase oil prices and serve as an economic leverage for Russia against its western opponents.

Under the present circumstances, hostilities do not benefit western regimes.

They need uninterrupted oil supplies to compensate for oil that Russia provided prior to its invasion of Ukraine.

The fact is, the global situation has entered uncharted territory.

In a multi-polar world order, even traditional western puppet regimes no longer fully comply with the demands of the western powers.

Thus, it cannot be assumed that Riyadh will not go to war with Yemen without US approval, as was the case prior to Joe Biden becoming the US president.

If Riyadh’s erratic rulers decide to go for another doomed military operation in Yemen, the entire global economy will suffer.

The Ansar Allah in Yemen have proved quite resilient and act as independent regional political and military actors.

On more than one occasion, they have demonstrated that they have the capabilities and enormous political will to carry the battle to the enemy.

It is no secret that Yemen sees the natural and permanent conclusion of its war with the Saudis only when Makkah and al-Madinah have been liberated from their clutches.

Events of the last seven years have shown that this in no political bravado but a distinct possibility.

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