Gas politics in the Eastern Mediterranean

Crescent International

Muharram 15, 1442 2020-09-03

Daily News Analysis

by Crescent International

There is a scramble for gas in the Eastern Mediterranean.

Several countries are involved: Turkey, Greece, Egypt, France and Israel.

Turkey is being challenged by the other regimes.

Tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean will bolster Russia’s geopolitical bargaining power.

It will also increase tensions between Zionist Israel and Turkey.

All parties vying to discover natural gas in the Eastern Mediterranean are trying to out argue each other through maps and legal clauses.

Whatever the outcome of the economic dispute, its geopolitical ramifications have been set in motion and will have long lasting effects.

As Turkey continues to set its own legal, geographic and economic boundaries, the dispute in the Eastern Mediterranean has brought together Egypt, Israel and Greece, an alliance which views a resurgent Turkey as a threat.

As reported by the Washington Post, “in January 2019, Cyprus, Israel and Egypt together with neighbors Greece, Jordan, the Palestinian Authority and Italy founded the East Mediterranean Gas Forum. It’s an effort to establish a regional gas market and an exporting hub to Europe, which is eager to diversify its sourcing to guard against disruptions of supply from Russia. Cooperation is an imperative in part because pipelines are needed to connect producers to consumers. In January 2020, Greece, Israel and Cyprus signed an accord for the construction of a 1,900-kilometer (1,181-mile) undersea pipeline, called the EastMed, to connect gas fields in the eastern Mediterranean with European markets through Greece and Italy.”

Turkey was left out of EastMed because of its territorial dispute over Cyprus which opens a series of legal disputes with Greece and non-Turkish part of Cyprus.

While all sides are currently trying to camouflage their dispute with Turkey through legal means, the end game is geopolitical.

Zionist Israel and Egypt, ruled by the pro-Zionist military autocracy, view the ongoing dispute as a mechanism to mobilize the EU and US to increase pressure on Turkey.

It is not a coincidence that amid ongoing tensions in the eastern Mediterranean, US officials partially lifted an arms embargo on Cyprus and announced deepening security cooperation with it, supposedly to counter Russia.

While Western regimes are eager to decrease their dependence on Russian energy supplies, they will not do so by increasing Turkey’s bargaining power or allow it to become a crucial energy transit point.

Europe’s civilizational proximity to Russia and with large ethnic Turkish population on the continent whom they view as outcasts, European regimes would opt for a stronger Russia over a muscular Muslim Turkey.

Moscow understands this well and will play on Europe’s irrational fears by making sure Russia remains a primary energy supplier to Europe.

Turkey’s dispute with the EU also plays into Israel’s hand.

It will make it easier for the Zionists to confront Turkey using EU’s influence in Egypt, Libya and the Persian Gulf.

Both the EU and Israel are interested in maintaining the current despots in power in the region and keep any potential revival of the Muslim Brotherhood out of the political equation.

The above geopolitical game can be effectively neutralized if Turkey, Iran, China and Russia agree the parameters on the conduct of their energy policy in order to drastically reduce Western dominance.

Five years ago, this might have seemed quite utopian.

Today the global power dynamic has changed radically. A memorandum of understanding between the four parties can actually topple the existing world order.

Geographic connectivity and common threats faced by Turkey, Iran, China and Russia make a geopolitical arrangement between them a very viable and practical option.