by Ayman Ahmed (News & Analysis, Crescent International Vol. 54, No. 9, Rabi' al-Thani, 1446)
The Israeli-led genocide in Gaza has completely exposed the political, moral and intellectual gap between US-backed dictatorships in West Asia and the people they oppressively rule over.
Even proponents of the west-centric order do not attempt to hide this reality. Last month Bloomberg’s Voternomics dedicated a podcast to discussing the probabilities and ingredients in place for the repeat of a series of mass uprisings as was the case in 2011.
Our conclusions are not based on sources like Bloomberg. It is, however, important to note them to clarify for readers that we do not engage in confirmation bias or wishful thinking.
Our assessment of the unavoidable resumption of regional mass uprisings is based on multiple sources, including those with whom we disagree on crucial matters.
Regional and non-regional dynamics all point to the fact that the regimes installed in Egypt, the GCC and Jordan, all fear that their humiliating impotence in the face of US-Israeli led genocide will push the masses to topple their illegitimate regimes.
It is important to keep in mind that we do not claim that there will be full-fledged revolutions, for reasons that will be explained below. It is unrealistic to expect a revolution like that in Iran, but what is certain is that US-installed regimes in the region are in for a rough ride. For the first time in decades, this includes Israel.
Just as in December 2010 we were certain about upcoming upheavals in the region, we did not expect them to erupt within a month of writing about them. Today, we see that Islamic Awakening Two (Arab Spring Two) is simply a matter of time.
No one can predict how exactly the regional uprisings will happen, including the CIA, with its multi-billion budget and spies swarming all over the region. Therefore, an important question to examine is to look at how the upcoming uprisings will differ from 2011.
To understand the difference in their orientation and process, let us first conduct a brief general overview of on the ground realities. Just like the uprisings of 2011 began unexpectedly, the forthcoming events will also erupt suddenly.
There is a sizeable Palestinian population in Jordan. This population is militantly committed to social justice and has a powerful intellectual and experiential reference point to conduct a struggle. There is a sizable portion committed to a strategically different vision for Jordan and the wider region. This factor is a political time bomb.
In September 2024, Jordan’s Muslim Brotherhood operating under the banner, the Islamic Action Front, won 31 out of 138 parliamentary seats in a controlled “election” process.
Even western sources linked the gain of the Islamic Action Front in Jordan to people’s anger over the ongoing genocide in Gaza.
Parliamentary “elections” in Jordan are an important symptom of the volatile domestic situation. The regime in Amman uses “elections” as a controlled safety valve. The fact that the regime allowed the Islamic movement to claim “victory” is a sign of deep fear by the US-Israeli backed regime in Amman.
The Jordanian regime understands that in the current regional situation, if it clamps down hard against the people to prevent a revolt over its complicity in the genocide in Gaza, it could backfire with severe negative consequences.
By not resorting to the customary mass electoral fraud and allowing the opposition forces to enter the rubber stamp parliament of Jordan in slightly larger numbers, the regime hopes to buy time.
This political gimmick is unlikely to work to prevent an uprising. Regional tensions are very high, people’s anger is reaching boiling point and Jordanian’s are slowly but surely showing that they do not fear breaking the regime’s red lines. Nothing demonstrates this decrease of fear than open commemorations by Jordanians of Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah’s martyrdom. Those who know the region understand the message of defiance of this act.
Egypt and the GCC regimes lack the election gimmick of Jordan to use it as a societal control mechanism, making the situation in both locales even more volatile.
Let’s begin with Egypt.
Without Cairo’s assistance, apartheid Israel would not be able to blockade Gaza for years or massacre its people with such disdain. This fact has become clear to most people in the Muslim world and even beyond.
In Egypt, the US-backed military junta’s primary method of staying in power is brute force. There are no political control valves which existed even during the reign of Hosni Mubarak. This indicates that when an uprising erupts in Egypt it will be quite bloody and violent.
Examining key socio-economic variables along with regional developments of the past year, it would not be an exaggeration to state that Egypt will simply implode.
Regarding the GCC statelets, apart from Bahrain it is difficult to image citizens of other countries flooding into the streets due to decades long brutal oppression. Nevertheless, due to regional instability and local factors, palace coups and intra-regime intrigues cannot be ruled out. They will destabilize the GCC.
Given the above, what are the chances of the likely success of the anticipated uprisings in comparison to the events of 2011?
There are both internal and external factors that are likely to make the current uprisings more successful than the ones that occurred 13 years ago.
Experience is the best teacher. Many revolutionary groups, activists and organizations which participated in some form in the uprisings of 2011 are still around. They have reflected on the mistakes of the past years and will have greater operational and strategic foresight and experience than in 2011.
One of the manifestations of this reflection was a statement by the Mufti of Libya Sheikh Al-Sadiq Al-Ghariani in which he implied that people should not differentiate between the regimes in Jordan, Egypt and zionist Israel.
While during the 2011 events, Islamic movements were dominant due to their organizational capabilities in most locales where the uprisings took place, they did not command the situational narrative. This is why it became relatively easy for western regimes and their regional surrogates to co-opt the legitimate and authentic processes in 2011.
One of the primary differences between the current regional set-up and the one pre-2011 uprisings is that the region has a concrete ideological and intellectual direction today.
Since it is Islamic Iran, Hamas, Ansar-Allah and Hizbullah which are leading the battle against the region’s arch despot, known as Israel, it is these movements which have framed the events from the get-go. In politics, impressions and perceptions matter, as in many other aspects of life and they often frame reality.
The current evolving political, social and geopolitical conditions are rooted in actions and ideas of the Arab world’s most dynamic Islamic movements. It will be quite difficult for the GCC regimes and other US surrogates to redirect the people’s anger away from Israel, the US and western-backed dictators.
There are of course weaknesses among the masses. We are not oblivious of them.
Forces opposing the establishment of governments representing people’s will are wealthier, better organized and brutal. Nevertheless, these advantages of the US and its regional surrogates can be overcome by developing a dedicated, wise leadership and strong institutional depth.
As was the case in 2011, at the local level, in Egypt, Jordan and most other countries of the Arab world, there is lack of leadership and institutional durability. In these circumstances, they represent serious weaknesses.
Islamic movements in most Arab countries did not have leaders like Abbassi Madani, Imam Khomeini, Hassan Nasrallah, Abdul-Malik al-Houthi or Sheikh Ahmad Yasin. However, taking into consideration that one of the primary catalysts for the upcoming uprisings will be the events in Gaza which transcends national boundaries, there is now a possibility for the emergence of transnational leadership.
Leaders often emerge in the process of struggle. Who the regional leaders will be is yet to be seen. Of course, the US and its surrogates will attempt to appoint leaders like they tried to do during the events in Syria. Will they be successful, only time will tell. However, the region is being mobilized on a mass scale due to the brutality and despotism imposed by the US and its regional dictators. It is highly unlikely that any organization or personality associated with western regimes and interests will fare well among the masses.