by Omar Ahmed (News & Analysis, Crescent International Vol. 54, No. 12, Sha'ban, 1446)
The overthrow in December of former Syrian president Bashar al-Asad’s government and the rise of the Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)–dominated interim government came as the largest blow dealt to the region’s Axis of Resistance. It followed the assassination of Hizbullah Secretary-General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah in September.
Under the leadership of Ahmad al-Sharaa, formerly known as Abu Mohammad al-Julani, HTS has extended its control beyond its former bastion in Idlib. It now encompasses parts of Syria, including the capital, Damascus but not the entire country.
The ousting of Asad and the rapid fall of Damascus coincided with the withdrawal of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Hizbullah and other allied groups from the country. This transformation raises critical questions about the Iran-led Resistance Axis and its capacity to overcome such a significant political and logistical set-back.
The HTS-led government: A new reality
HTS’s ascendancy to power has shattered the old order in Syria. The group, once known for ties to Al-Qaeda, has sought to rebrand itself as a moderate, legitimate governing authority. Al-Sharaa’s leadership has brought about the formation of a transitional government, with efforts to establish governance structures and integrate Islamic law into state institutions.
While HTS’s ideological roots remain a point of contention, its control over Syria’s major cities, including Damascus, signifies a new chapter in the country’s history after decades of secular, Ba‘athist rule.
This development, a political gain for Turkiye, Israel and their allies poses an existential challenge to the Resistance Axis. HTS’s Islamist governance model and its alignment with Turkish interests directly counter the goals of Iran and its allies, who have historically relied on Damascus as a cornerstone of their regional strategy.
The rise of HTS disrupts the Axis’s strategic depth in Syria and undermines crucial supply lines to Hizbullah in Lebanon, at a time when the ceasefire deadline with the zionist entity will have ended by the time this article is uploaded.
Occupation state’s extended occupation
The fall of Asad has emboldened the zionist entity to expand its influence in Syria. The zionist occupation of the Golan Heights has now extended into southern Syria, with its forces seizing key strategic locations, including Jabal al-Sheikh (Mount Hermon), in the wake of Asad’s ouster.
As Damascus fell, the occupation army wasted no time targeting remnants of Syrian military infrastructure and Iranian-linked assets. These actions served a dual purpose: to prevent Iran from establishing a foothold in Syria and to solidify Tel Aviv’s dominance in the region.
For the Resistance Axis, the zionist entity’s expanded presence represents a critical challenge. The loss of Asad’s government, a key ally, has left the Axis vulnerable to zionist encroachment. Iran and Hizbullah, already stretched thin by commitments elsewhere, must now contend with the reality of a more assertive occupation state operating with near-impunity in a weakened, fragmented Syria. The HTS-led regime, preoccupied with consolidating its own power, offers little to no resistance to the occupation military’s extended occupation, further complicating the position of the Axis.
Economic and diplomatic strains
The collapse of the Syrian government has plunged the country into deeper economic chaos, amid efforts by the new regime to open Syrian markets to the west. Inflation has spiraled out of control, and the country’s infrastructure faces a monumental challenge in being rebuilt.
Reconstruction efforts are hampered by western sanctions and the lack of a centralized authority capable of mobilizing resources. The HTS-led regime’s focus on establishing its legitimacy and consolidating power leaves little room for addressing the economic needs of the broader population.
For the Resistance Axis, Syria’s economic collapse presents both a challenge and an opportunity. The HTS-led regime seeks to firmly distance itself from Tehran’s orbit. At the same time, the economic vacuum in Syria could be leveraged by the Axis to build alternative networks of influence, though this would require significant resources and a coordinated strategy that appears lacking at present.
Diplomatically, the Axis faces increasing isolation. Asad’s removal has disrupted longstanding alliances and left Iran and its allies scrambling to reconfigure their approach. HTS’s growing ties with Ankara and its recent diplomatic outreach to Arab regimes further undermine the Axis’s position, creating a new regional order that side-lines the traditional players of the resistance.
Strategic options for the Resistance Axis
The Resistance Axis now finds itself grappling with urgent and complex challenges in a dramatically changed Syria. It must adapt to the new reality of HTS governance, respond effectively to the occupation state’s expanded occupation and strategic maneuvers, and find ways to sustain its influence in a fragmented and hostile environment.
One critical question is whether the Axis can re-evaluate its alliances in light of HTS’s ascendancy. Engagement with the HTS-led government may appear unthinkable given the group’s takfiri ideology and close ties to Turkiye, but pragmatic considerations could necessitate limited dialogue to safeguard key interests. Alternatively, the Axis could explore supporting rival factions that might better align with its regional goals, although this will only serve to destabilize the country.
The issue of countering zionist expansion also demands immediate attention. Tel Aviv’s intensified actions in southern Syria and its occupation of strategic areas present a significant challenge to the Axis’s regional posture. While Hizbullah is regrouping after its own set-backs, the resistance bloc may need to step up operations against the occupation state through Yemen and Iraq.
Diplomatic recalibration is another pressing need. With HTS strengthening ties with Arab regimes in the Persian Gulf and Turkiye, the Resistance Axis must work to rebuild its own regional alliances. This will necessitate a willingness to compromise on ideological positions in order to regain influence and offset the gains of its adversaries – an uphill challenge given the new sectarian reshuffling in Damascus.
A moment of reckoning
The fall of Asad and the rise of the HTS-led government mark a major turning point for the Resistance Axis. The challenges it faces—from the zionist state’s expanded occupation to Syria’s economic collapse and HTS’s growing legitimacy—require a fundamental reassessment of its strategies and objectives. While the Axis has demonstrated resilience in the past, its ability to adapt to this new reality will determine its future relevance in the region as the only force that has intervened militarily in support of Palestine.
The stakes could not be higher. Failure to effectively address these developments risks leaving Syria in a state of perpetual instability, undermining the Axis’s broader goals and paving the way for new alliances and power structures that exclude it.
Success, on the other hand, would reaffirm the Axis’s position as a key player in the region, capable of shaping the future of a post-Asad Syria and countering the forces arrayed against it. For this, in addition to Iran, other key actors in the alliance, in Yemen and Iraq would need to assume more assertive roles.