US miscalculations about the war in Ukraine

Crescent International

Ramadan 13, 1443 2022-04-14

Daily News Analysis

by Crescent International

With Russia experiencing difficulties in achieving its imperial ambitions in Ukraine, the US-aligned media, and economic, political and military institutions are euphoric.

Washington assumes that this will likely result in retention of the US-led west-centric global order.

This assumption is popularized in the media because many European rulers have turned to Washington in order to bring about Russia’s defeat in Ukraine.

Western rulers fail to realize that the world consists of more regions than Western Europe and North America.

It seems geographic racism is very real.

America’s assumption that Russian failure in Ukraine equals US global hegemony is difficult to argue if one looks at developments outside of the European continent.

Even on the European continent, however, events are not as rosy as the media headlines present them to be.

Considering the position of the regimes in Hungary and in Serbia there are divisions even in Europe.

Overall, Washington’s arrogant approach and inability to see global realities in a multipolar world order are creating several strategic blind spots for US policy-makers.

On April 6, the London-based Middleeasteye.net reported that Dana Stroul, US Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East, stated that in Ukraine there is “a black and white case of Russian aggression” and that regional countries should not remain silent.

Stroul’s comments were most likely directed at US vassal regimes in the Arabian Peninsula who, sensing America’s decline, did not adopt the standard anti-Russian position of NATO.

The fact that cynical regimes like the ones in the UAE and Saudi Arabia dared to openly disobey their western masters is a sign that American euphoria is based more on wishful thinking than on a solid understanding of the current multipolar global order.

In addition to the UAE and Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Apartheid Israel have also avoided taking an outright anti-Russian position.

Just like Russia has miscalculated the effects from its invasion of Ukraine, the US is miscalculating the benefits it can reap from Russian difficulties in Ukraine.

White House policy-makers are misreading their own capabilities and setting unrealistic goals.

In the current global order, Venezuela, Iran, China, Turkey, India and Mexico have the capabilities to not fully side with either the US or Russia.

It should be remembered that sanctions against Russia are imposed by western regimes without United Nations endorsement.

The majority of countries in the world have not imposed economic sanctions on Russia.

The situation is such that if Russia manages to preserve its internal stability for the next year or two, even if it does not achieve most of its desired goals in Ukraine, it will be quite a blow to the US-led campaign to weaken Russia.

Here is why?

Russia is in a position where if it does not implode—quite unlikely—it can easily sell this achievement as victory domestically and to states cooperating with Russia on some foreign policy matters.

This would be quite a strong symbolic message as it will underline the fact that with all its massive economic weaponry and proxy military pressure on Russia inside Ukraine, Western regimes are no longer capable of achieving strategic geopolitical victories.

While Russia will not achieve complete victory in its Ukraine endeavour because of the unrealistic goals it set at the start of the military campaign, the US too will not achieve its maximalist goals of global hegemony.